Bachelet Keeps Large Lead in Chile’s Election |
(Angus Reid Global Scan) – Former defence minister Michelle Bachelet is still the frontrunner in Chile’s presidential election, according to a poll by Centro de Estudios Públicos. 45 per cent of respondents would support the Socialist Party (PS) candidate in this year’s ballot.
Former Santiago mayor Joaquín Lavín of the conservative Independent Democratic Union (UDI) is second with 20 per cent, followed by businessman Sebastián Piñera of National Renewal (RN) with 17 per cent, and Tomás Hirsch of the leftist Together We Can (JP) with two per cent.
The Agreement of Parties for Democracy (CPD)—which includes the PS, the Christian-Democratic Party of Chile (PCD), the Party for Democracy (PD) and the Radical Social-Democratic Party (PRSD)—officially nominated Bachelet on Jul. 31.
Lavín lost the 2000 run-off to current head of state Ricardo Lagos of the CPD by 2.6 per cent. The presidential election is scheduled for Dec. 11. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, the top two finishers will participate in a second round.
On Sept. 25, Piñera said he would be the best choice for centre-right voters, saying, "Lavín has gone through a constant drop in support." Lavín criticized the RN nominee, saying, "He tried to run in 1993 and in 1999, and it did not work out. If we discuss how long we have been campaigning, this is only my second try, but in fact it’s his third."
Bachelet is the daughter of an air force general who was executed after opposing dictator Augusto Pinochet in the 1970s. Chile has never had a female head of state. In two prospective run-off scenarios, Bachelet holds a 26-point lead over Lavín, and a 22-point advantage over Piñera.
Polling Data
Who would you vote for if the presidential election took place this Sunday?
Sept. 2005
Jun. 2005
Michelle Bachelet (CPD)
45%
47%
Joaquín Lavín (UDI)
20%
22%
Sebastián Piñera (RN)
17%
16%
Tomás Hirsch (JP)
2%
2%
Run-off Scenarios
Michelle Bachelet (CPD) 54% - 28% Joaquín Lavín (UDI)
Michelle Bachelet (CPD) 52% - 30% Sebastián Piñera (RN)
Source: Centro de Estudios Públicos (CEP)
Methodology: Face-to-face interviews to 1,505 Chilean adults, conducted from Aug. 20 to Sept. 11, 2005. Margin of error is 2.7 per cent.
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